PLS 1.64% $3.10 pilbara minerals limited

Looking near and far for PLS

  1. 1,335 Posts.
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    Hi all,
    Thought I would summarise and consolidate some of the research that I and others have been doing. In the short term we have a good possibility of further binding off takes, perhaps with a prepayment involved. There is a good chance one of these will be for technical grade spodumene with companies looking to lock in supply with Talison only supplying internally in the near future. The prices we can expect for this are far higher than the battery grade prices other companies are getting.

    In terms of the DFS, as others have pointed out we can expect improved numbers in a lot of areas and not where people are focussing. From what we have been reading all of these are highly possible.
    - A higher grade reserve results in more tons of spodumene output from same plant throughput.

    - I have heard we can expect a higher recovery rate which once again means less waste and greater efficiency with no more throughput required to achieve this.

    - While our $205/t is low compared to peers, the ore reserve is likely to be of a better grade/ strip ratio. When these variables are considered there is a good probability of a reduced cost per tonne.

    - The PFS used $456/t from memory so considering others have been selling 5.5% for $600/t we can expect at least this, if not more for our 6% that is sold as spodumene concentrate to customers and not through our integration plans. These integration plans can see the revenue and margins increase greatly as others have pointed out, especially with the profit sharing arrangements in place downstream although some of this is TBA.

    - As per the Deutsche Bank report we can expect at least $1000/t US for our technical grade product which is once again providing great margins.

    - We can expect increased plant size / throughput which will also increase revenue/margins/NPV. As to how they show this will be interesting.

    Looking at the bigger picture, it's interesting to read about spodumene versus brine in terms of the battery market, others have also pointed this out. While right now with high carbonate prices it is feasible for brines to upgrade their carbonate to 99.95%, if prices slow down in the future it may not be so and this is great for us. It is only recently that this has become a viable option for brines. I've also read that perhaps brine can't even reach 99.99% at any converter cost which in a performance market is huge. In terms of quality, these battery manufacturers are going to want to lock in the best and so will their end customers. The impurities from brine can reduce operational efficiency in the cells of batteries and manufacturers will not want this. I was listening to a podcast with Joe Lowry earlier and he mentioned that in speaking to a lot of his clients at the battery manufacturers, none has confirmed receiving battery grade quality....after some time of ramping up this is very interesting to hear.

    All in all, I'm very happy with what I have read and my investment overall. In a boom market we can expect great revenue and wonderful margins, especially as we move downstream and vertically integrate. The most satisfying thing is even in a bear market, we will be able to make money off our product due to our scale and low cost per tonne. I'm sure I have missed some points but hopefully this is of some use having been collated and looking both short and long term. Apologies for any errors as I have wrote this on my phone while on the train home.

    Cheers,
    Palchum
    Last edited by Palchum: 18/07/16
 
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