If we go to ATC they are currently trading at ~$53m market cap (undiluted). However they have a further 56,957,439 shares to issue subject to shareholder approval at the end of November (AGM). So assuming approval >>> at current share price gives them a market cap of ~$61m (undiluted). Roughly speaking they have a cash position of $17m, so EV ~$44m.
They announced Maiden Ore Reserve and JORC Mineral Resource in October 2016. Other key features:
- Meckering kaolin deposit is in WA
- They then will need to ship to Johor processing plant in Malaysia
- Announced High Purity Alumina (HPA) Test Work and Bulk Sample analysis in July 2014 (as AKA)
- In January 2015 they optimised beneficiation process for Meckering
- In February 2015 they produced competitive High Purity Alumina results in terms of lower levels of impurities
- In June 2015 released Bankable Feasibility Study (BFS)
- In September 2015 ATC & Mitsubishi signed a High Purity Alumina sales agreement
- In April 2016 ATC Signed Off Take Agreement with Mitsubishi for 100% of HPA Production
- In March 2017 their mining proposal was approved
- In August 2017 their works approval application was granted
- In October they finalised design of 4,500tpa HPA plant
- Also in October 2017 announced positive results from a Final Investment Decision Study (FIDS)
- They are currently engaged in the process of securing project debt financing
So they are a long way ahead however I don't believe that they have made optimal progress (for example, almost a year between test work and bulk sample analysis and release of BFS) and their journey is a little different. I would expect HEG to trade at a higher EV when reaching similar milestones due to the following:
- Substantially lower sovereign risk
- Potentially superior project economics based on scale of processing plant, lower operating costs and proximity to mine
- Stronger team to secure project financing
So what I anticipate for the remainder of this year and during next is that HEG will close part of the gap in terms of time. The obvious caveat there is that HEG can't control the governmental approval process.
At 0.15 HEG would have an EV currently of ~$19m (assuming ~$250k cash and completely excluding the gold projects). So substantial room to grow from 0.115 (~$14m EV) over the coming year and not including subsequent growth to shareholder value through the completion of project financing and other catalysts beyond that. Also completely discounting any shareholder value realised by news around the gold projects.
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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21 | 58095497 | 0.001 |
0 | 0 | 0.000 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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