Well its taken me a while (since listing infact) to convince myself (with a bit of prodding from others), but I've finally decided URL is definitely a stock to be in...and started accumulating about a week ago at 16c or under.
Copper price has exploded recently, and URL (along with its JV partner BSG wjhich i also hold) has the biggest undeveloped copper project in Australia (thats a quote too).
Why is it undeveloped? Well it was originally a PASMINCO asset and well we all know what happened to that. SO BSG and URL were able to pick up the asset fora song. ITs a low grade prospect which explains why it wasnt developed in the 20 year or so metals bear market. We are entering a new bull market in metals (if you havent noticed because ur living under a rock) so The Roseby project looks like being timed almost perfectly, production this year would have been perfect.
So what has URL (& BSG) got? Well prior to last Monday a fairly big resource that the market looks at and turns its nose because its low grade and much of it is inferred or indicated. Unfnortunately the market is now familar with the ore type, which is very low cost to process. Obviously the costs per pound wont be anywhere near as good as OXRs or AVLs (though looking at AVLs recent quarterly, proof that GRADE is NOT ALWAYS KING).
Ive recently recieved a URL presentation that shows a scoping study NPV of 74 millionA. Thats only on the EXPLORATION area mind you, of which URL has the right to earn up to 70%. It does not consider the Feasibility area where BSG can earn 70%. The feasibility currently has about 13.7 million t of measured ore at .78% grade. It also has around 30 million t of indicated ore.
The minelife is estiamted to be aorund 8 years... which i think will be greatly increased. Producing around 20G t of copper concentrate (inlcuding gold credits) we have what appears to be a VERY robust project and we are at ground floor shareprice at the moment.
The big plus is that despite the large number of drilling results and intense exploration, URL has mainteained what i reckon is still a fairly tight capital structure, which should enable small capital raisings as required as well as more generaous terms at financing time.
I think it will get a significant rerating very soon (explorers appear to be lagging the copper producers while the copper price flies).
If anyone can pick any holes in URL please point them out for my further consideration. I feel the low grade is not an issue given the size and planned trhoughput.
Oh and then there's BURRA, but thats another story for another time.
Cdchi1
Well its taken me a while (since listing infact) to convince...
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