looking weak.... slipping below support..., page-2

Hi Zzzds, this is my take on things for what its worth.

The weekly & daily charts for AGY are showing that a down trend has been the norm for the last 4 weeks.
It also shows that the share price today has now retraced almost 61% of the bounce that started from the lows back on 6 July last year & eventually topped out at $0.86 on 30/11/07. The 61% level is $0.47.

Conversely it could be said that after falling out of bed after the sp hit $1.34 early last year, the share price recovered 50% of that fall before hitting resistance at $0.86 and has now retraced and found support just below the 23% level. The 23% level is $0.495.

After AGY reached its peak during November for the recovery from its lows which saw approximately 10.5 million shares change hands, there was what appeared to be the start of an accumulation phase which lasted for about 3 weeks and resulted in another 2,502,820 shares change hands.

This 3 week period, which I thought at the time was the precursor for a major break out, was also a time when the share price was never allowed to close above $0.80 & the consolidation failed probably due to a lack of news & some dodgy selling resulting in a change of trend for the last 4 weeks. The average weekly volume traded was 824,273

Selling for the last 4 weeks has been consistent but low in volume.
The volume traded since the selling started 4 weeks ago has been low by comparison to the previous 3 weeks with only 1,328,890 traded. The average weekly volume traded being 332,222, less than half the preceding 3 weeks.

My perception of AGY share price action for the last 7 weeks was and still is, is that it is being fiddled with.
The selling that has bought the share price down to todays lows is consistent with my perceptions and studying the share price movements and related events I noticed on the market depth screen over this period.
So far the retracement over the last 4 weeks, while very disappointing, is a not unexpected event given the lack of news by years end, which was that a deal would be sorted by xmas, plus all the other negative stuff now in the markets.
The sp has conformed to the fibbonach retracement levels almost perfectly as I had drawn them.
Based on these levels holding & the close today at $0.53, the sp may be about to rally off these levels.
Tomorrow is another day however, so alternatively a failure here would more than likely see the sp test $0.38.

I continue to believe that things are basically on track but needing some finessing to bring them to a conclusion. If things were otherwise then the sp would be a hell of a lot lower & the volumes would have been higher.
I will wait & see.

Good luck.