The manipulators are very good at shaking the tree victorp. For every seller there is a buyer so, unless there is a major change to fundamentals that we don't know about, (the unknown knowns being leaked) then there shouldn't be any need for worry (In My Honest Opinion).
A good test to look out for is how quickly the sell side stack depletes once the perceived resistance is reached - which is 59.5c at the moment. This is better than the 53.5c resistance of a week ago.
Disciplined short term traders who play for, and take, profits (and I don't blame them) play with our emotions. Even, in a smaller way, the charts replay the emotions of Jan 2008 and the SP gets bogged down in the sixties.
For those who bought at 53.5c a week ago and sold at 63.5c today have made almost a 20% profit. At todays rates it would take 4-5 years to make that much in the banks. Even after tax it is > 10%. They just make sure they buy and sell on the right side of the swings. They can do this by experience in creating the swings themselves. It doesn't matter the size of the swing as long as they are part of it.
The way this share can be manipulated (because it is mainly mum's and dad's who are the easy targets) it could go back to those levels but I am not so sure with the announcement so close.
For the rest of us long term holders, it is a patient waiting game. What we need to remember is it is all right to sell and buy. The important thing is to have a game plan. Whilst the HC forum may only partially influence the price, it is good a place to learn the art of trading, and keep a finger on the pulse.
What I am trying to decide is how many shares I will continue to hold (and play with) after the announcement, because the rollercoaster ride will start again in earnest. There will be some serious trading going on and, unless we have our wits about us and don't get caught in the emotion, we will be left at the starting post. What I mean is the swings MEO has seen recently will be magnified. We saw it in previous farmins in 2007 and 2008. Some shares I have held so long it will be hard to say goodbye to them. My sentiments have always been for 'LT Buy' with this stock but, of course, this may change depending on the announcement.
Hopefully this deal will have a basis for the long term growth with regards to Tassie Shoal because, even though it is 1 billion cheaper than a land based LNG plant it will still mean 2 billion will need to be raised through a JV - let alone the cost of establishing wells at Heron and Blackwood.
Perhaps I am just a fence sitter. But by sitting on the fence I can see what is happening in the playground so I can join in the best game going on. At the moment, for me, that is MEO but we still need to be aware of what strategies are going on around us.
Just my thoughts.
MEO Price at posting:
60.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
