1. AER has come out with 20-30% proposed price increases in electricity prices.
2. Coal / Oil / Gas commodity prices have fallen which makes it cheaper or less loss making for utilities to fulfill fixed contracts.
3. CS and Intergen Callide C JV has gone into liquidation - placing further uncertainty over a blown up 800MW of coal capacity in QLD whixh is becoming short on energy
4. Relative value investment play across Banks and Resource companies looking very shaky - re-rating risks and outlook in a potential recession playing out- Big Banks are dropping out of the sky.. dead - what better to invest into a company with guaranteed revenue uplift and fixed cost base.
5. Imminent compensation of hundred of million of dollars for Origins Eraring coal plant - the optics will look quite bad.
Leaving aside the fact futures prices for FY25 remain >100$MWH so DMO pricing for FY 25 should show at least another 10-15% uplift, which i'm sure with Liddel going offline will make it quite interesting in the next few months for unhedged players.
AGL Price at posting:
$7.45 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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