LYC 0.71% $6.35 lynas rare earths limited

"LYC was meant to be a strong growth story into an emerging...

  1. 1,648 Posts.
    "LYC was meant to be a strong growth story into an emerging sector while the market was basing but ended up a damp squib at huge opportunity cost."


    now LYC' story is not the same story of past, the background has changed, so investment of LYC need some "New thinking".

    another new "RE bubble" like as "the RE bubble of 2010-2011" which had recognized that would may never appeared again:

    China's monopoly on rare earth in decades will be broken certainly in the next few years;

    these powerful new competitors (except of US and Australia)from the sub-developed countries, such as India, Vietnam, Kazakhstan, etc, the low-cost products will be limited the RE price to large rise;

    the demand for rare earth will be gradually increasing, there no possible of sudden sharp rise in demand;

    due to the huge reserves of light rare earth in China (Supply for at least 100 years), and the new projects(out of China)of development of rare earth resources that most which are the light rare earth, so the rise of the light rare earth price will be more difficulty in the estimated future;

    as a rule:any strategic resource if China has very rich, this resource usually will maintain the low or flat Price;


    LYC will face challenge:

    the rare earth price(LRE) may be wandering long-term in a relatively low level(compare the peak as low; relatively low peak height), the cost and production efficiency will be the most important KEY that LYC can gain "Good Margin", and also as the basis of SP;

    the rare earth industry in China,India,Vietnam ,Kazakhstan, all have the strong support of national background , the Environmental' standard and cost is lower, and the labor costs are also lower than in Malaysia... will have a very strong competitive;

    due to a so long term delayed in production(the "on time on budget" plan would start production by the end of September 2010),although began producing now , But the lost of time costs and opportunity costs are too great,
    the lost the period of best RE Price and the time has be more shorten of new competitors enter...

    So now may need to a new understanding for LYC.
 
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$6.35
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