looks like buying time again, page-11

lol!

Stephen118,

I have a Tates compass. Ever heard of the Tates compass? He who has-a-Tates is lost! Boom Boom! So no-one should follow me! I'm so lousy at timing, and so lousy at reading technical signals, that my only strategy is to try to read the fundamentals way ahead, invest, and hang on through thick and thin...mostly thin.

That said, I still like Panterra, for all the reasons that have already been presented here. Accidents aside, I'm quite hopeful that it has enough income to weather the current frigid financing climate and go on to greater things. I don't think Brian Johnson is superman, and I suspect he may one of those managers who makes his share of mistakes in getting to the right answers, but I think he's a cut well above the average, particularly in integrity. May his and the team's health and enthusiasm hold out! If I have any concerns, it's that some new threat will arise before the debt is under adequate control. They need some calm water for a while. Survival is enough success for small goldies at the moment.

On a wider perspective, I don't think it's realistic to expect the PGI price to recover much ground while just about every goldie out there, big or small, is being trashed. We need a sectoral turnaround first and foremost. I think that there are plenty of fundamental drivers for that, we just gotta wait.

The gold-or-goldies question? I take the view that (cashed-up, tightly managed) gold miners are exceptional value at the moment, so I'm shifting my pathetic portfolio that way with both hands. That fits with the facts that I find physical gold bullion inconvenient, and that precious metals ETFs are becoming too risky for my liking. My only exception for ETF investment is a short to medium term play in palladium, where, subject to technological risks, both the supply and demand outlooks seem attractive to me.

Most experts I know of think that considerable technical damage has been done to the gold price, and that any recovery will take awhile. They may be right. However, I suspect that the gold price is only coasting because it's changing gears. For example, I believe that we'll come to look back on this period as one when gold was shifting out of weak hands, involving both a transition from paper gold to physical gold, and also via a move eastwards. I also think that this time may come to be seen as the precursor of rising bond yields, plus the beginning of overt and divisive currency warfare. Last but not least, Russia China and the USA have drawn some very deep lines in the oily desert sands, and it's possible that they can't keep things low-key in Syria and Iran. Last but not least, there's a strange confusion developing in central bank announcements that I've not seen before. It may not mean anything, or it could be showing that a degree of desperation and disunity is creeping in.

None of this is conclusive. Nonetheless, I don't think it's a good time to let one's attention wander.

Grav