Look, the issue I'm trying to get across is we've all been...

Look, the issue I'm trying to get across is we've all been fooled by the Chinese ploy to blackmail ROW OEM's into relocating to China. They put the "RARE" in RE's by slowly reducing quotas 2006/9 and then slashing them by 40% in 2010. The reality is China has sufficient mining & production capacity for 2/3x global RE demand.

What they didn't count on was the free market rabid speculation on the diminished supply and then the resulting demand destruction from those bubble prices.

Of course that speculation flowed straight into Western investment markets and before we knew it Molymess was worth $77 a share, Lynas $2.70, etc.

Underlying that ROW RE demand dropped from 56ktpa to 30/35ktpa currently caused by 75% of 4 of the 5 key RE demand segments moving into China, economic slowdown & demand destruction. Demand for Ce has been particularly hard hit by substitution & thrifting (major ROW Ce market Japan 13ktpa down to 5ktpa recovering maybe to 8ktpa by 2015).

The investment market is slowly catching up to these realities & adjusting to new demand projections which don't lump all RE in the one basket or even the misleading LRE v HRE argument in the popular press.

Concept of simply producing "RE" at the lowest price to guarantee a market is also a major mistake. Think quality, reliability, established supply chains, balanced suite, CREO, Nd/Pr/Dy = magnets, Eu/Tb/Y = phosphors, Ce = autocat washcoat, La = FCC, who & where are the biggest customers that add value to these combinations and elements? What is demand likely to look like across the FULL suite in a deposit by the time of production?

Two years ago Lynas could have sold everything it produced, now? We have to wait and see. Global demand is forecast to recover to 56ktpa by 2016 but Lynas, China & "others" can meet that demand. Does the market have the patience to sponsor other wannabes for another 2/3 years in the hope that further demand opens up?

Wing and a prayer.