ROC still has good prospects if their exploration is succesful.
ROC’s remaining 2P Reserves as at
30 June 2007 totals 25.7 MMBOE. Produced about 2MMBOE in the six months since then less 7.5% downgrade leaves about 21.4 MMBOE equivalent as at 31 Dec. Only 3.2 MMBOE is hedged at an average price of US69.66. However, the current unrealised loss will be recognized in the 2007 financil statements. At quarter end ROC had only debt of A$104M. At a price of $2.16 ROC's market value and enterprse value is A$643M and A$750M. This looks expensive purely on EV/Reserve value.
However, if ROC's exploration/appraisals are succesful then Reserves could increase signifantly.
Exploration
Angola:
- Massambala (18+ mmbbls)?
- Milho-1 (33-129mmbo -Jan08)
- Trigo-1 (78-188mmbbo)
- Lead 113C Presalt
Perth Basin: ( 7mmbbo)
- Frankland Gas
- Dunsborough Oil
- Locac Prospect
Beibu Gulf (11.6mmbbls)
- Wei 6-12-East
- 2 more
Mauritania
- Khop-1 (Block C)
- Banda Gas (PSC B)
- Chinguetti Oil
In other words you can't value ROC based on its producing assets. ROCs value will be determined by its outstanding exploration/development portfolio. The commerciality of many of these prospects will be determined in 2008. I expect a rerating up of ROC on the exploration success or approval of development of commercial projects.
Regards
SP
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