Raw,
In many respects you are correct, but imho more so wrt juniors than mature midcaps.
When you've been around as long as ROC, spent as much money as ROC, drilled as many wells as ROC, then imo you can apply hindsight to get a fair idea of what the future odds are.
As for investing in JD, the man you speaks in trite riddles, imagine the direction you must get working for the guy. Investors are drinking from a poisoned chalice imo ( but hey it may be your elixir of life - each to his own).
EL
looks like something, page-29
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