Sorry to disagree with you Moon, in fact I don't ever recall disagreeing with you before! The current counter offensive in Kharkov region has indeed been a very successful operation to date and all credit has to go to the brave fighters of the Ukraine, however in reality it is pretty limited in size and ground taken. 15k fighters is hardly a "big offensive" although maybe one could argue big in the context of this conflict. But we must remember the Kherson counter attack was actually substantially bigger in manpower and equipment. Again I reiterate a commendable thrust exposing the Russian alliance's defensive lines however to date it really is only a tactical advance, not a strategic one. As we now know, the bulk of the fighting has been done by the militias of the LDR and DPR forces, supported by Russian artillery etc. Actual Russian units are of course located on the front but pretty sparingly! I dont believe the Russians were actually taken by surprise but they obviously took their eye off the ball, which is still a major blunder and has and will cause huge embarrassment to Putin and his general staff! My fear is now the Rusians will say not again and appear to be mobilising and deploying substantial reserves of regular Russian army to the area. That will be a whole new ball game if the Ukrainians all of a sudden are facing Regular Russian Army combat units in substantial size and armour and without doubt a lot more Russian air support. The Kherson offensive is a classic example of what can happen when they face Russian regular army units as the Kerson region was the only area mainly manned by Russians not militia. It was pretty quickly repelled after initial success resulting in substantial Ukrainian losses. The Russians have indeed retreated to form a new defensive line as they seem pretty willing to and have easily ceded ground in the past. Will they just reinforce the new defensive line and remain put or will they conduct a counter offensive??? Who knows, we'll find out in the next week or two. As for Ukraine winning the war, unfortunately they continue losing ground in most other areas of the front, particularly the Donetsk region. The big question for me is, how embarrassed is Putin and how will he respond? I would suggest he is absolutely fuming, I just hope it doesn't lead to him going all out and escalating this war dramatically!
