When we invest we base our decisions on sensible, conservative,...

When we invest we base our decisions on sensible, conservative, analysis, rather than on ‘irrational exuberance’, fun though it always is to let our imaginations run away with us.

This is my take on where we might reasonably expect PAR to be in about three years, assuming successful Phase 3 Clinical Trials, and FDA approval.

Alone, or in partnership, PAR targets wealthy markets in Western Europe, North America, Oceania, and Japan, with total approximate market

= 800,000,000.

Arthritis affects >20% of population, but assume target market of 10%

= 80,000,000

Assume PAR gets a 2.5% share of that market in Y1

= 2,000,000 patients treated.

Assume each patient accesses 2 x courses of PPS injections six months apart

= 4,000,000 courses of injections prescribed in Y1.

Assume each course of injections is charged at $250

Revenue therefore would be approximately 4,000,000 x 250 = $1B.

Assume manufacturing and cost of sales = $50 per course of injections

PAR Free Cash Flow would therefore be approximately $800,000,000 p.a.

(Let’s say a bit under $3 per share)

Anything else (deals, licensing agreements, revenue from treating conditions other that arthritis, etc., would be a bonus).

I would be pretty happy with that.