Had a hack at valueing petsec - without growth prospects:(1) the...

Had a hack at valueing petsec - without growth prospects:

(1) the gas price is the major variable;5 is too high to base the numbers on ,it will spend a few months over 5 this year (currently 5.80)and a few months around 3 .the average henry hub price for 2000 was 4.32 ,2001 4.05,2002 3.37.i feel 4 is a reasonable number for this year.

(2) kindly the company has provided costs of .5

(3) Annual net cash flw is us $4.00 - 0.50 x (18 +1.5) at exchange rate 0.6 =A$ 41.5 for the year

(4) at 31 december 2001 annual report the company had a$121 tax losses expiring 2005-2019, so no tax payable

(5) using a discount rate of 20% (lets face it, who doesnt have a required rate of return of at least 20% on a spec stock?!), and using three years of production figures to compensate for probable field decline, NPV is $87 m or 83cps. dropping the discount rate to ten percent (as brokers do) is $103m or 98cps

and then theres the other prospects and then theres china.......

good luck!