LYC 0.00% $6.80 lynas rare earths limited

losing confidence, page-9

  1. 4,977 Posts.
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    hey Jordan,

    where are you getting the $800m figure from? slide 31 from the deck below has PPE cost phase 1 at a total level being $349M to this you would add the engineering & project management costs of 157M so total phase 1 investment $506M?

    http://www.lynascorp.com/content/upload/files/Macquarie_Conference_Presentation_2_May_2012_1106188.pdf

    they also spent $60m on the site which i guess in the worst case could be liquadated and machines are movable afterall....? who will buy the plant and equipment....no one will be needed....they will move the machinary elsewhere and start again if they have to....but again i emphasise....this is the worst case scenario and one I reckon has very low odds....

    who can buy ore directly? Any of the current chinese plants .....we all know NC has great connections in china....if anyone can pull that off.....he's the best one to do it...

    As this is an international agreement....they would sue Malaysia in international courts and likely get back their investment eventually....but again in this worst case unlikely case...

    Bottem line.....this is a risky play but one that can give you very high returns....investing in this depends on your risk return threshold...the way i see it....in today's market even "safe Blue chips" are getting slaughtered...eg. NCM , RIo....so i rather play now in this part of the market....and atleast get the commensurate return when the markets bouce up again

 
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