BNB babcock & brown limited

The thing with this stock as jazzmox has said is that it's...

  1. 58 Posts.
    The thing with this stock as jazzmox has said is that it's business model is shot. BNB depends on being able to raise equity to fund acquisitions through sattelite funds and them fees to make their money. To raise equity they need to have the market's confidence in them.

    This confidence is well and truly gone and is not coming back. So there will be no earnings growth as they can no longer raise equity to fund acquisition of money making assets.

    Another factor is that they stated a few weeks ago that they weren't going to sell the Tassie power station and a couple of days ago announced they had sold it for a loss to reduce debt. Everyone knows now they are a distressed seller and fireselling assets. In knowing this buyers will not be in a hurry to pay top dollar for any future assets BNB put up for sale. They are going to find it difficult to get good money when selling off their assets.

    Also there is a very good chance of further asset writedowns as there have been minimal writedowns so far in a market where asset values are declining.

    The fact that they are selling off assets also means they are selling off their means of making income as well. Expect profits to shrink further as they continue to sell.

    So the story so far is profits will shrink as they sell down assets to reduce debt. They will not grow and BNB will not execute any more acquisitions.

    What you are banking on if you are buying is that they will sell off assets down, leaving core profitable assets running and that the profits from these assets will be greater than what is reflected in the current share price. If you have done your analysis (I certainly haven't) and you feel the P/E of assets after selldowns is worth the current SP then you could justify investing.

    But there is another very real risk. If their financiers stop supporting them when their loans expire ala Centro, they will not be able to repay their debts and will go into liquidation. Again net assets (in a firesale situation) may be greater than what is reflected in the share price and that is up to all of you to decide before investing. I have not done any analysis on that account either.

    I am not trying to say to anyone not to buy but just urge you to be aware of the risks and do the analysis before investing. Also be aware that even if fundamentals show it is undervalued, market sentiment is shot so be prepared to wait a long time for the SP to recover.
 
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Currently unlisted public company.

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