Is it the usual play or something more sinister?
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Last week I wrote that we are coming closer towards the pointy end of making a bottom towards the end of July. We still have few days to go. I have been talking about this low since mid-may, saying we will top end of May and bottom end of July. But that was based on "normal" play. What I mean by normal is that general markets, even if they are not increasing, they are not in big drop mode. In my weekly report last weekend, I wrote that general markets are easing, may get into correction - drop of 10+%. The good play would be pullback - 2/5% drop. As of yesterday, SP 500 has nearly dropped 5% from its high. So we are at a crucial juncture. If we drop more in general markets, I feel the July end bottom we may have to wait. Markets to stabilise before we feel we have bottomed.
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In mid-May when I wrote what the bottom would look like, initially I wrote that a 30/40% from its high. Few weeks back I revised that saying the drop could be closer towards 50% for some stocks. LOT has come down from 49.2 to 25.5 today, very close to 50% - so in track with what I was thinking. Why such a big drop? U sector is volatile and these rises and falls are not unusual. For long termers, I feel macro is still good. But I follow price action, trading patterns, so my play is slightly different. Its individual risk/reward, there is no right or wrong.
One other thing I have been writing is that CCJ will drop to 45 - saying that over 2 months. Yesterday it reached 43.57. Yesterday it closed at 44.58. It needs to hold here, otherwise, 39/40 for CCJ is in play. It will drag down most U stocks with it. So lets hope it holds.
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LOT reached 25.5 today, a number it had not visited this year. So its a significant drop. Worst case scenario is a play of 20. I don't think it may go there, but one never knows. Its not a big sector and many can play around the ups and downs. Hopefully we are getting closer towards bottom, maybe next week, but general markets have to behave. All the best.
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Last
26.0¢ |
Change
-0.015(5.45%) |
Mkt cap ! $476.2M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
27.0¢ | 27.5¢ | 25.5¢ | $2.168M | 8.290M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
10 | 212374 | 26.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
26.5¢ | 81309 | 3 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
6 | 148260 | 0.260 |
8 | 573424 | 0.255 |
17 | 587683 | 0.250 |
3 | 153149 | 0.245 |
5 | 198149 | 0.240 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.270 | 88800 | 5 |
0.275 | 177801 | 3 |
0.280 | 242546 | 3 |
0.285 | 138149 | 2 |
0.290 | 141006 | 4 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 26/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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