o clear direction this week?.
From a weekly perspective, LOT had a small gain, from 26.5 to 27.5.. Usual volume.
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So what is happening? Last week I wrote that U macro is at critical level. I was also following CCJ trading pattern. It had played perfectly till then. A big rise from 40s to 50s. What happens next? Do we got 60s or we back test 45. I had written previously we back tested 45. But it doesn't need to happen. I follow price action, so best not to assume anything. CCJ has not given a strong direction. Meanwhile it has reached 49 couple of times this week, but has held. That is positive. That means its not ready to test 45, yet. But conversely, its not getting the momentum to get over 56.24. So we are at cross roads. I was talking about the same thing last week - will a back test of 45 come first or a high above 56.24? We still don't have an answer. I am still neutral.
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From a numbers perspective, LOT game is between 20 (or should I say 23 now) and 28.5. Unless one of them is breached, the play may just drift.
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Personally, couple of weeks back I wrote that I have exited all of my LOT stocks at 28 from my average buy of 19.5, at 45% gains. So has been a happy camping for me. LOT always gives, if things are fine. Otherwise, it may just drop. Have not yet bought back. I am still waiting to buy back - I haven't got yet my signal.
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So which is the direction?. I don't know. I will wait to see what happens tonight. U macros is very strong. Spot price is also on the rise, Can stocks play to that? Very possibly. There is not much to dislike, but we did make highs this year, January, March, May - we were in euphoria, and then stocks dropped over 60/70%, average 50% - no change in fundamental, just big guys playing us around, we don't like to admit, but I feel unfortunately we are just pawns in the hands of big players. We hope. They play. We hope they play what we want. 60% drop is not we wanted or hoped. It happened. That's the reality. Rest is wish and hope.
(20min delay)