LOT Chart, page-651

Weekly data and thoughts.
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Please note that all my views are for short-term only, and I could be wrong, so please dyor.
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.Uranium Sector Overview -
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From a weekly perspective, LOT had a big drop, moved from 20 to 16.5. Last week it moved from 17 to 20, so has given it all back, and a bit more. That is LOT. A hot and cold stock. Will do much wider swings than other stocks. One reason I like LOT because I do swing trades. May not be good feeling for those holding long, I understand. So now LOT is looking at the barrel and seeing 15.5 if things don't go well. Upside first step is 21, it goes up to 20.5 few times, but that's it. I did play out some on Wednesday when CCJ was looking iffy, I did so for a lot of my U stocks, so got out some at 19, have bought back most on Friday at 16.5. Have slightly reduced my average from 17 to 16 because of a positive trade. I am still very hopeful of Cycle 1 of 2025 (see last week post) to take place. So will buy rest soon unless some indicators are very bad
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Last week I had gone into detail pattern of cycle of CCJ (and in affect most U stocks). So won't go into detail this week, but commentary is similar, can check my last week post for any reference.
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Another week has passed. We are still not sure what the next leg looks like. Even if its to go up or down. Top 2 shorted stocks in ASX are U stock. There are 3 in top 10, 5 in top 20. These shorters are not some general punters who have done a big mistake. They are better qualified than ordinary punters, including some big houses with big pockets doing this. So not to be trifled and ignored. Last 2 years they were shorting all Li stocks big time. Many didn't believed, even laughed at them initially, most die-hards ignored it. But the shorters came out right. Last 2 years has been the worst for Li macro and stocks. Something to keep in mind.
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Lets look at 3 key indicators that provide market direction for short term, same as I have been doing for last few weeks -

• CCJ - Lost around 6% for the week, last week 43.53, this week 41.83, low of 41.62, high of 46.21
• BOE/PDN - huge drop - BOE lost 17% and PDN 15%
• Spot Futures - lost around 1% - Moved from 65.05 to 64.35 this week,

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So what are the numbers telling? Last several weeks I have been saying, we will only get confirmation, once CCJ gets over 45 and stays above 45. That has not yet happened. I had also written that by end of last week we were reaching a semi-euphoria state. So I was expecting a pulldown on odds. That has happened. So we continue to be in the chop zone, foe now. Uncertain/Indecisive play continues. We don't know yet if CCJ 39.31 in this cycle is the low. Next week should provide more direction.

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Why I wrote last week that we are reaching semi-euphoria state -

• For me, as I have been writing for years, CCJ and Spot price are the biggest two indicators of price action
• CCJ is only around 10% above its low
• Spot price is only about 5% from its lows
• BOE rose nearly 50% from its lows, AGE/AEE 40-45%, BMN/DYL/LOT around 30%
• Punters already thinking something very big may happen, sooner than later

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Personally, I have been buying this week. Last week I wrote that I felt a lot of stocks have moved ahead quite fast, where CCJ/Spot had not, so felt they had got ahead of themselves. This week provided opportunity to buy back those that I let go last week. Have done around two-thirds back, one third is left which I will see this week, hopefully, depending on numbers.
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So what may happen next week? On Friday US U stocks were down. CCJ is now getting closer towards 40 again. It has now done 4 red days in a row. It needs to hold 40, otherwise most stocks will have a decent slide down. General markets also big down. So we could have a very tentative start on Monday.

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Here is the Figures for the Week:.
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