Lots of excitement on short term share performance ... but can they execute?

  1. 166 Posts.
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    So, ADX shares making bears look silly in the short term ... so I thought that I would recap how they have actually performed on their one producing asset (I have already discussed how success at the drill bit has been elusive since ... forever)
    • Q4 2019 Operational report - describes closing of acquisition and says that field produced 330boepd in 2019, field in December producing on trend ... plans to increase production by 17% or 54boepd with well workover programme (54/.17=317, so actual December production was 317 boepd)
    • Q1 2020 Operational report - production 286boepd, 10% below expectations (due to emulsion problems). So plan was 318boepd it seems. Forecasting 320boepd for Q2
    • Q2 2020 operational report - production 313boepd, so not as planned. Forecast 320 for Q3
    • Q3 2020 operational report - production 308boepd, so not as planned. No forecast for Q4 ...Oooops Q4/Q1 workover plan to increase production by 50boepd
    • Q4 2020 operational report - production 240boepd, definitely below plan ... now ongoing workover programme seems to be for recovery of production levels ... with possible plan to increase production in 2021
    • In summary, rather than producing 317+54= 371boepd in 2020, they produced 286boepd, so a 14% below 2019 and 23% below plan
    Just to say that all share performance due to paperwork rather than ability to execute operationally ... just waiting for the reports of gushers in Upper Austria and reports of Hydrogen business being operational ... oh, forgot, they have to beg for a lot of OPM before any of that can happen. Can't say that as a Reabold Resources Director I would be giving them any more money for Romania ... the trail of poor operational execution started in Tunisia, then Romania, ... seems to have also infected Austria (same management all along, so consistency no surprise).
    I would say that current froth is probably a good opportunity to cash in any gains
 
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