lots of sellers why bother

Always seems to be lots of sellers with this one. I have noticed that some zinc bulls who post on hotcopper, do not even own this one. Even the CBH thread does not seem to be as followed (number of hits) the way it used to be. So why would you bother:-

Well just a refresher, to re examine how we are on the cusp of something special in terms of upward shareprice movement. (in my view, at least)

CBH really is a very simple business model. Absolute basic stuff to work out costs and revenues, (therefore profits) At least in comparision to many other sectors.

Here we go. Last time they had a full year of production was 2004/5, when total company costs were $130 million. Company have told us costs will rise by $30 million to a total (includes everything)of $160 million.(seems fair enough).

Likewise guidance has been provided that total revenues will be $325 million.....that means a pretax profit of $165 million PA.....and a PE of 2.

It would be crazy however to accept what the company says re revenue flow. So all savvy investors will do their own sums. We need to get to $325 million. So lets double check:

58,000 tons of zinc @US$1.55 per lb equals $250 million
30,000 tons of lead @ US$0.60 per lb equals $60 million
1000 tons of copper .....$10 million
*One off silver payment from Colur'd'Alene $30 million
--------OR $350 million gross revenue----------------

ie say $150 nett profit - It seems so apparent to me, that the stock must move from the PE of 2 (outlined here) to a PE of 5. That means the share price HAS to go $1, within the period of the next 12 months....does it not.

Having said all this, if you buy tomorrow and expect to sell a few days later at a profit, it is likely with this stock, you will be disappointed