yeah, I agree EL, I wasn't saying that I think there'll be a double figure offer but that's what he'd need to part with his stake
agreed also, explo success has been pretty thin since SQ in terms of new stuff but I note that
- at SQ, only about 60-70% of what they're digging out of the pit is coming off reserves ie. reserves have been understated (I'm no mine planner but does the pit being open in all directions mean they just keep widening the spiral until they get sub-optimal grades?)
- besides the few yrs worth of stage 1 production below this, they continue to have success even lower at SQ deeps albeit thinnish intersections, same mine success is obviously cheaper than a new discovery with overburden strip reqd - it wont surprise if they stick the drill in the right place and find another T5 ala Flying Fox
- on that, T5 at FF itself is huge and has a few yrs to contribute yet and T6,7,8... below after that are promising so far
- critical obviously is Ni price and been reading a lot about the Ni world cost curve - without boring people, I'd say $8/lb is going to be a minimum long term (of course GFC, Euro type events could cause a spike down)- having said that, I reckon $12 will be max also with NPI costs affecting this min and max
So, barring management stuff ups (and I gotta say these guys have proven fantastic) and anything left field, I reckon anything in the sub $5 IS a no brainer with underpinning from an EPS of 50-80c and proportionate divs
for a few yrs to come
- trying to be patient and launch at it closer to $4 if possible
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