Hi Barry,
When you take the accepted metrics from the CRN presentation; page 18
Simple method; US$67.5M change to EBITDA for each $10 increase on their previous average price of coal (last year coal price average was $138). Assume $300, and that equates to $486M (this year) + $1.093B = $1.6B or AU$2.2B
I also did it another method, when considering coal price and our coal production/management costs. I then received similar your calcs. Either way, we are in the same ballpark.
Forecast; I can see how you get north of $10 in this climate.
I would still like to see a bit of a buyback, to reward the loyal with larger distribution next time round. Ie they will have upwards of US$1B in the kitty within the next 3 months.
Lovely chart, page-10
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