Domum, I've yet to see the evidence that tantalum plays a role in nukes per se, although some detractors such as Pierpont (AFR) and uranium supporters have made claims to that effect. If the evidence is strong, why haven't tantalum stocks gone up much in the sensational boom? Thus for the time being, I'm comfortable with my position, as I would be holding an investment in say a pen making company which might sell a pen to an engineer one day who happened to use it for legitimate work in an industry I might not like or see the need for in the grand scheme of things - it's neither here nor there.
I've done my research and am of the belief that other "energetic" things will shine through which will knock people's socks off in the next couple of decades, when they finally get to hear about them in the popular press and the analysts bother to start looking. It's a similar style of research to what has seen me happily holding GIP while TAA, SGW, HDN etc came and went with their tantalum claims and pot shotting supporters. It doesn't mean I'm going to be ultimately correct about GIP and co. or make money out of anything (the herd has to follow any lead anyone takes for that to happen), but it does mean I'm happy with my position. Verifiable evidence there's a problem and it's a new ball game.
A bit more about the trilogy and GIP:
- Some may look at GTP and argue that a 10-bagger wasn't on the cards this century in the time frame being considered (ie. there wasn't time to get out of it and into GIP), but bear in mind that it paid regular dividends, including a 30 cent, fully franked dividend not too long after bottoming out in the mid-30's. It all adds up. :-)
- GIP unfortunately reminds me of the saying about plenty of water being around, but one being unable to drink it. To paraphrase, "gold, gold everywhere, but not an ounce to mine". Sure Centamin has already claimed over 7 million ounces to the N.E. of where GIP is drilling, but the below surface grades (as opposed to the old near surface ones), will have to be consistently higher in at least one of the ex-mines to ensure GIP will get the mining go ahead. It won't be easy as things stand. Veins of around 100 g/t have been stumbled across by CNT, but veins don't mean much when it comes to JORC statements. On that note, CTO in Qld. was a "veins" stock I had in mind for a 10-bagger and as it now appears unlikely to settle back to where I would buy it for the trilogy exercise, I'm mentioning it here. My thinking was along the lines of ... does it have 1 million JORC ounces (all CTO thought was worth trying to prove) and is therefore somewhat overvalued, or does it potentially have up 70 million ounces along the lines of what is being claimed for a similar structure in China? It may be decades before anyone finds out, but if gold takes off in the next few years, few will care. GIP's recent grades would look just fine if gold went to over $1 K per ounce and costs stayed so low. They have some potentially very large fields and the ancients dug up plenty of gold in the area, but some JORC approved, confirmed zones of good grades are required to get the ball rolling.
Regardless of what happens to the share price, I'd like to see GIP get at least it's first tantalum-tin-feldspar mine up. The Egyptians have bent over backwards to make wide ranging economic reforms in the last few years (they had the world's best performing stock market for a couple of years this decade - blue chip 100-baggers like Orascom Telecom for those lucky enough to be allowed to buy on the Exchange when no one cared about that market). The first mine is unusually good in environmental terms, has local and whole of Government support and would help some people continue to lift themselves out of the almost third world conditions and laws of earlier this decade.
AR1 Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
