Yay the first downramper. You are right, if the phosphate price...

Yay the first downramper. You are right, if the phosphate price goes back to 110-120 we will make low margin. However, the phosphate market is under supply pressure, both China and Russia were significantly suppliers to the market, both have since banned exports. China till at least end of April and Russia till the end of the year. Before this, Phosphate was already trending upwards due to the demand for the product. It would require significant supply to force these prices down, such as Morroco significantly increasing output.

At the current assumption of 250 bucks a ton, the IRR for this project is 160% and payback over 5 months.
Food scarcity is a real thing and the demand for phosphate is growing based on every study under the sun, so I highly doubt we would ever see prices sub 110. The DFS was done before significant supply shocks and the price was 145.

At 250 a tonne these guys will make 120mill ebita a year, not including potential value add from REE, Potash and base metals projects.

Happy to discuss further if you want to come back to me.