It may be an "extreme" theory, but current oil low prices are killing HZN competitors and evidently slowing oil/gas exploration-production activities while HZN is considerably protected from the ongoing oil price shock by its oil hedging trick.
During the Sept Quarter, daily oil barrel production was about 3400 and, I think, it has remained steady during the Dec Quarter. Considering that HZN has hedged up to about 2700 barrels per day till March 2015 (see AGM presentation), this means that almost 80% of the current HZN oil production is being sold at $95.
Furthermore, there are 2 other factors in favour of HZN to be highlighted:
1) Beibu lower oil price ($4-5 discount) production is decreasing while Maari higher oil price ($4-5 premium) production is increasing.
2) Lower oil prices are also a consequence of the stronger US$: this means that, while HZN is selling barrels at fixed $95, oil production costs in China and NZ have been decreasing and, therefore, profit margin on the 95$ barrel has been increasing.
With more than 2000 barrels per day (almost 80% oil production) hedged till Jul 2015, HZN is well protected for other 2 quarters, exactly till when oil price will likely rebound as the effect of the ongoing oil exploration cuts will finally start bing felt.
HZN Price at posting:
16.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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