Ousia
In all due respect, you have assumed that the worst credit market in 80 years will persist unchanged for another 9 months and that no progress will be made by the Corus DYE team in the next 9 months, and on that basis you muse that DYE would have to go at a deep discount to raise $16m (yes another heroic assumption using straight line extrapolation I guess).
Whilst it may be entirely prudent to assume random walks for exchange rates (ie in the short to medium term exchange rates are so unreliable that we may as well assume current exchange rates into the future), I suggest it is entirely dodgey to assume a random walk for the developer of such a disruptive technology as DYE.
A couple or three points:
1. by Sep 09, there will be either some signs of recovery in Europe or if not then companies like Corus, let alone a tiddler like DYE, will be be in deep doo doo.
2. by Sep 09, the Corus DYE development will either have hit a brick wall or will be less than 12 months away from industrial production of steel sheeting that will produce electricity. I note that Corus believes that if proven, this product will account for 20% of its steel sheeting production.
3. Worst case scenario by Sep 09 DYE will be an unproven tech stock drowning in the worst economic crisis capitalism has faced. Best case scenario by Sep 09 Corus will see the solar sheeting as its future in the largest economic market in the world at a time of economic recovery. In either scenario $16m will not likely be the figure required to be raised.
Cheers
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