GSL 0.00% 17.0¢ greatcell solar limited

triage,Because of the corus deal, DYE has so far been able to...

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    triage,

    Because of the corus deal, DYE has so far been able to weather the global financial storm quite well. However, meaningful revenue for DYE from the Corus deal (and others) is still around three years away.

    At Dec 31, DYE had $7.98mill in the bank. As of today, that figure is probably around $7.25mill.

    In the last quarter DYE burnt through $2.73mill. With reductions in operational expenditure, and factoring in a slight increase in receipts from customers, I'm forecasting cash burn to reduce to around $2mill p/q over the next year or so.

    Even if cash burn is reduced to slightly less than $2mill, any savvy investor can see that sooner rather than later DYE is going to have to do at least one of the following:
    (1) raise further cash (there are no more ‘in the money’ options to be exercised)
    (2) find a cashed up partner
    (3) take on substantial debt
    (4) start selling assets
    (5) start sacking employees and closing down certain non-core operations

    Obviously, raising capital is the preferred option, and in this regard the key challenge for DYE management is timing. Now is not a good time for a small cap to try and raise capital, but if management wait too long, then the market could start to smell blood, and, as the market did with CFU, savagely sell in anticipation that the company only has a few months left of cash. It doesn't matter how promising a company's product is, in this market, if the company is perceived to be running short of cash, it is going to be savagely sold off.

    As I see things, DYE management have less than 6 months to resolve their funding issues before the share price plummets to something like net asset backing (roughly 18.5c).

 
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Currently unlisted public company.

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