I always take time at new year to think about year. For many of my longer held stocks this is a quick review and I usually do it with AR. For others that I want to make moves in, like buying Lynas, It is longer. In Reviewing Lynas I noticed how much the story has changed on lower production.
Here is a link to the transcript of Q3 CC
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/edited-transcript-lyc-ax-earnings-111706577.html If you notice not one mention of limited because of concentrate Quotas Just now they have the ability and the means to decide who and when they will sell product to.
Q4 CC had a major change.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/edited-transcript-lyc-ax-earnings-085912958.html making to stock. Selling to key customers only want to develop outside of china. Just a little mention of Quota. Again if worried about concentrate does it make sense to build to inventory?
Q1 focused was Concentrate restrictions Making sure no shutdown. A great move and I fully accepted it. But now I am thinking back over a year. When it fist became clear that there would be a December shut down they stated that they did not need a higher Concentrate limit. They emphasized how the limits were by weight. That current concentrate was wet. They implemented a drying program. AL and many on this board said it was crazy to ship water. Now it is Malaysia restrictions. What happen to the drying program? We were told it was well underway. That limit increases were not needed. Q4 "
we finished the quarter with 323 tonnes of NdPr product," This production cost was expensed in Q4. they did not keep this customer reserve long they sold it in Q1 and lowered Q1 production expense by only making 12XX tons. A move I have used to move expenses from one year to next. ALL depends on how you evaluate inventory. Nothing wrong with it but SH should recognize it.
JMO I think the real problem is price and what Nd price is needed to make a profit. Now NdPr is about USD40 and based on Alloy going up I think the next move will probably be up. This will allow profits. But how much is what every investor should be thinking about.
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