I guess life is complicated - and seeing into the future is...

I guess life is complicated - and seeing into the future is fraught with danager. I rail against simple explainations, but as John Mauldin has just written...

["Any explanation is better than none." And the simpler, it seems, in the investment game, the better. "

"Ah," we tell ourselves, "I know why that happened." With an explanation firmly in mind, we now feel we know something. And the behavioral psychologists note that this state actually releases chemicals in our brain that make us feel good. We literally become addicted to the simple explanation. The fact that what we "know" (the explanation for the unknowable) is irrelevant or even wrong is not important for the chemical release. And thus we look eagerly for reasons.

And that is also why some people get so angry when you challenge their beliefs. You are literally taking away the source of their good feeling, like drugs from a junkie or a boyfriend from a teenage girl.]

And he is right. We all have to be aware of our bias's. But understanding the complexities of this world, that if we didn't develop a framework to understand what was happening - we would never make an investment decision.

Sorry for being arrogant - signing off.