stapleman,Too hard to predict prices that are driven by...

stapleman,

Too hard to predict prices that are driven by pre-results speculation. 99% confident the direction will be up between now and spud because I'm confident that there are enough of us that have waited for years for this one event and it will be tempting for many of us to take on just that little bit more. I'm also confident that some others who don't hold and saw no need to hold until now are sitting anxiously trying to pick their entry point. I'm also confident that for most holders there is more reason to be in now than out thus reduced supply at a retail level anyway (can't comment on the SIs).

All that said there is no real way of knowing how many new holders or how much dosh they have spare for a bet right now. More announcements and more media coverage would no doubt increase the number of new holders discovering this but not convinced we will see the type of coverage that it probably deserves. O&G aren't the flavour of the month ATM and POO is still off despite Israel's attempts to spice things up.

On the other hand the bets being taken out against the AUD are quite timely for us. A lower AUD magnifies the rewards as it increases the relative cost of gas/POO which are denominated in USD.

I guess its only early May still so about 4 to 6 weeks before people need to make a decision about getting in pre-spud. My guess is that early June is when things are likely to heat up a bit. On a pure risk reward baisis your 80c is probably fair but if / when traders get involved anything can happen. Irrespective of my logic, I still hope your right.

Putting pre-results speculation aside for one second I've been thing about some of the conversations herein about how undervalued some of NENs other assets are. Part of this as we all know is that there is competing priorities for the limited funds NEN has available. A find in 105 would not only underpin NENs share price and provide significant cash flow, but it would put NEN in a position to easily access the funds necessary to unlock the other projects at a much faster rate. Projects which aren't going anywhere fast are marked down in value considerably. The point being that success in 105 or 120 wouldn't just rerate NEN on the basis of the derisking of that asset but would likely see a rerating of other NEN assets on the basis that they are more likely to be developed by NEN in the shorter term.

The SP rise that could be triggered by Vietnam drilling may go well beyond the value of the Vietnam assets alone.