The internet has made the old idea of good news on Tuesday and bad news on Friday Less true than it was. It existed because in the days of print media Friday news seldom made it into print. If it did make it on Monday people were half asleep and did not react strongly. You released good news on Tuesday because people were very attentive and you had 4 days to get follow on. The internet has realy reduced both of these effects.
the report earlier because you want report earlier. I assume You think that Q4 is going to be reasonably good could you explain why?
Here is hard data from Lynas. That forms mu opinion it will be bad. Q4 2023 had Revenue of AUD 294M. There is a 90 day book to bill delay. Q3 2023 had an average NdPrO price of 665 RMB WV, Q3 2024 381 RMB If you do not believe in the delay then 2023 Q4 489 RMB and 2024 477 RMB. In Q4 2023 they sold all there NdPr they made 1874 T Based on Q3 CC comments how much do you expect them to sell this Q4? The Q report only has revenue so if they do not sell it, no revenue. AR does include inventory in profits so it will impact profits.
Revenue so far this year has been AUD 343M Revenue for all of 2023 was 820 M So to match last year they would need $475 M, based on data above I doubt they will have $180M. A lot less than half YOY.
If you could please give me data from Lynas reports and REE prices that says Q4 is not going to be a disaster. Maybe it is your dream it will be great? If Research supports it, show us!
The only thing I do not know will the Q4 report wake up investors to how Lynas is doing and cause a SP drop or will it take The AR which will show a two year drop in profits > 80%. . 2022 AUD 557, 2024 very likely less than $100M. for record 2023 $310M. So the revenue drops YOY are getting bigger in both % and $.
Just to give you a little more background Yahoo's survey of 15 Analysis has been dropping their estimates rapidly. Current 2024 estimate for revenue is AUD 509 M For EPS is $ 0.08. JMO revenue is High, and EPS is a little Low. More likely $0.10 to $0.12 for EPS. We will know in Late August.
The following chart I first published 4 months ago since then Analysis have come down to REV 509 and profits of 0.08 X 936M shares = Profits 75M. The large % drop in profits makes no sense with the smaller drop in revenue unless they think expenses are going to increase dramatical. I think they will with KAL coming on line. I am still using 2024 AR expenses until the AR. Then I will have Hard data telling me what they are. I know they will go up. For profits to drop this much expenses have to more than double. ii am thinking an increase of 30% ~ 50%. I will wait for AR.
LYC Price at posting:
$6.37 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)