lowbrow friday, page-86

Some great posts I have just read here.

I am intrigued by the Pesavento top. To generate a 1150 correction I thought 1217.36 on SPX would be perfect and we got 1217.28 so a miss by 0.08, but can't say I am all that confident.

I can certainly see that 3 or 4 more weeks up is legit from a count perspective and from a McLaren perspective and also Laundry. The dates would be May 15 or even May 19 as ideal.

I thought this last week here would likely be down as getting 11 weeks up was unprecedented.

In the US, we are looking at April as a TDSEQH which is a complex 9 bar pattern up. If next week is up there, then that will be 9 weeks and a signal in itself. If Monday is up it will be 7 sessions up. So none of that guarantees anything and maybe even just says a week down soon and then more upside.

Looking at price barriers, if you take moving averages and Fib levels and BB bands and price resistance, and dynamics etc etc, then there is probably something like 10 barriers to break for SPX to get over 1250. Doesn't mean it can't do it but a huge task. Probably easier after some down time when they spread apart a little.

I do admit that some longer term momentum indicators are quite constructive still.

I did buy the SPI at the lower SYCOM open and exited less than the highs. Don't have a chart in front of me but we have had about 7 red candles on SPI. A green one must be close and we do have gaps above and we held the up channel on Friday etc, and of course a gap up Tuesday is another gap to fill yadda yadda.

I still have a short SPX position and feeling a bit stupid there. If Larry P is wrong then I probably have to exit and wait for a reconfirmed sell signal.

If in fact we do manage to rally to May 15 or 19 then perhaps I may have to admit this is just "normal" year and not a cyclical top.

The next move down should helpfully give an indication by way of its severity.