Even with poor US job figures & growing fears of US economy...

Even with poor US job figures & growing fears of US economy weakening further, grains lifted nicely on Friday night. It'll be interesting to see what happens to commod prices (incl grains) if QE3 occurs. Meanwhile poor weather conditions are forcing prices upward. Up goes fert price & its various feedstock with it. I retrieved the following from Agrimoney:

"Lanworth corn estimate sends grain prices soaring
18:32 GMT, Friday, 2nd September 2011, by Agrimoney.com

Grain futures jumped in Chicago - defying a sell-off in external markets which scuppered coffee's winning run -after Lanworth analysts lowered the bar further on US corn yield estimates.

Chicago's benchmark December corn contract overcame a slow start to soar more than 3% to $7.64 ? a bushel in midday deals, Illinois time, recovering nearly all the losses of the last session. The lot had eased to $7.58 ? a bushel with an hour of trading to go, up 2.7%.

The rise dragged fellow grain wheat up more than 2% to $7.78 a bushel, in Chicago, for December delivery, before easing back to $7.73 a bushel, up 1.5%.

The increases, which came even as Wall Street shares fell 1.5% and oil 2.2%, were attributed to an estimate from Lanworth, the satellite-based analysis group, that the US corn yield would come in at 143.3 bushels per acre.

The US Department of Agriculture has pegged the crop at 153.0 bushels per acre.

A difference of 10 bushels per acre would be equivalent to more than 800m bushels in production.

While Lanworth declined to comment to Agrimoney.com on its estimates, saying they were "confidential to clients", the estimate was confirmed by market sources.

'Lower and lower'

"The yield estimates just keep getting lower and lower," Jerry Gidel, at Chicago-based North America Risk Management Services, said.

The Lanworth figure follows an estimate overnight from broker Intl FCStone pegging the US corn yield at 146.3 bushels per acre, which was itself viewed as an estimate supportive for prices.

"Private analysts continue to make swift and significant cuts to 2011 US corn yields," Sudakshina Unnikrishnan, at Barclays Capital said.

Mr Gidel added: "But this Lanworth talk is different territory."

At PitGuru, Matthew Pierce termed the figure "wildly bullish".

The estimate comes amid a market already echoing to rumours of actual yields ? both encouraging and not ? as the US harvest moves north, with analysts expected to be able to put together a more reliable picture next week.

"We are now close enough to harvest that combines will be the real tale of the tape," US Commodities said.

Rain where it's needed?

The rise helped soybeans gain too, despite the potential for the latest tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico to bring late relief to dry US crops.

"If this turns north into Louisiana and up the Mississippi river, we will see a truckload of moisture hit needy areas in Illinois, Iowa, Missouri and into Minnesota," Mr Pierce at PitGuru said.

"This would help the soybean crop dramatically."

Indeed, Mr Gidel noted the potential for high corn prices, sitting at historically high levels relative to soybeans of more than 50%, to encourage South American growers to switch crops as plantings approach.

"They might be thinking 'why plant soybeans here'," he told Agrimoney.com.

Chicago's November soybean lot stood up 0.8% ao $14.45 ? a bushel."

http://www.agrimoney.com/marketreport/lanworth-corn-estimate-sends-grain-prices-soaring--1250.html