Went through last years Qtrly reports as I was trying to get a gauge on what the annual report will look like and thought I would share my thoughts..
Aurelia Metals FY 18 EBITDA
September Qtr - $15.3 Million EBITDA from 11,111 oz of gold/base metal at an AISC of $570 AUD
December Qtr - $21.2 Million EBITDA from 14,527 oz gold/base metal at an AISC of $452 AMI AUD
March Qtr - $ 28.5 Million EBITDA from 16,991 oz gold/base metal at an AISC of $316 AUD
June Qtr - $86.7 Million EBITDA from 54,746 oz gold/base metal at an AISC of $587AUD
AMI FY 18 EBITDA $151.7 Million
AMI average AISC for FY 18 $476 AUD
AMI FY 18 gold production 97,375 oz of gold equivalant
AMI cash position at 30 June $67 Million and no debt
AMI have given guidance for FY 19 of 185,000-210,000 ounces of gold equivalant at an AISC of between $900 - $1,100 AUD.
Assuming an AUD gold price of $1,650 and an AISC of $900 picking the mid point of the guidance and using i get the following:
197,500 OZ of gold at $900 AISC = $148,125,000 or .12 cents per share, if you assume 30% tax it gives you $106 Million for the year, using a PE of 8 (as AMI have noted the projects are likely to have an 8 year mine life) that gives you a price of .99 cents, add the current cash balance of $67 Million or 8 cents per share and you get $1.07. In my opinion this is the base case and we will be trading above $1 very shortly.
However, as we all know this company would be very careful in giving guidance, as the management continue to under promise and over deliver.
We know the North Pod at Hera as well as Chronos at Peak are both very high grade ore bodies, that are currently being mined. I personally expect to see a similar AISC as achieved over the last year for FY 19.. if this is the case, I get the following:
Assuming a gold price of $1650
197,500 ounces of gold equivalant at last years average AISC of $476 AUD = $231,865,000, assume 30% tax so $162,565,000 for FY 19 or .19 cents per share after tax. Using the PE of 8 again we get $1.52 per share, add the 8c per share in cash and its $1.60.
Up until a month ago ASX:SFR was trading at a PE of 15 (it is currently at 11), SFR have about 4 years of proven resource and are working on acquiring further reserves as well as drilling the nearby land to further increase it's mine life.
If you run a PE ratio of 15 on AMI assuming we hit guidance at the same average AISC recorded last year you get $4.06 per share, less a 30% tax rate assumption and add the 8c per share in cash currently held I get
$2.93.
The most important event in AMI's share price history is coming within the next few weeks in my opinion.. When AMI report the FY 18 Annual report, fund managers that don't use quarterly 4c reports as an investment metric will begin to realise the potential, I think this is the catalyst through the $1 barrier.
As we also know, drilling and exploration is currently underway, any further significant hits at Chronos could further push out these estimates on AMI's FY 19 earnings into FY 20.
From atechnical perspective, Friday's close above .60c accompanied by $5M worth of stock being crossed after the market closed should see AMI move into the 70cs very easily next week.
The above information has been taken from the last or 4c Qtr reports, it is my opinion only and could be wrong. Nothing is to be taken as advice to buy or sell anything, go and speak to a licensed advisor as i am not an advisor just an interested shareholder.
Best
GB22
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