Love the detail Bro, but you are forgetting some key...

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Smyla_s

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13/03/19

17:03

Post #: 37750411
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Originally posted by ryobal: ↑

Thanks i appreciate your support. I will pick up a bit more then make a move I think depending on next few weeks.
Between myself, friends, and HC have nice voting power and I am becoming more active in investment space in Asia.

@drifta and all. FYI i feel Loyyal has huge growth potential globally, especially in Japan.... Loyyal CEO moving to Japan and has support from Recruit Holdings who are huge..., the actual value to large enterprises makes sense as loyal industry has outdated tech and feels clunky. I am still waiting after 3 weeks for my Singapore airlines points to be credited to my air nz account (star alliance)! My grump of the day.

I like the "Loyyal investment" but it seems like more passive than active. As mentioned to generate card hold cash currently is 12-24 months sales cycle and product testing and then you need to train a deeply talented and invested sales and markets team, back end support etc which will take at least 6-12 months and another $1M+.... this costs a lot of time and money. RFN cannot sustain another 12 months $1.5M~ in running costs trying to build a business without revenue... That is simple. Otherwise you are cap raising at 0.005~ and diluting all of us (you will see why that is bad below).

I like Reffind for shell value at current SP and registry. $3M is great and why i am trying to get my average as low as possible and a larger position. If you think about the fact they have $3.2M valuation in Loyyal (and can sell if required), a clean balance sheet (no debt), ok registry, and some cash... If you back in a company generating cash say they are worth $20M on paper... Its $20M+$3M (RFN current value) $23M market cap...If the company generates more cash, grows and markets starts projecting valuations you might have a $40M+$3M (RFN original) valuation which essentially doubles your investment.... Right now revenue from last 4 quarterlies has been halved and halved again... So market projecting this to continue... hence it is now a shell. Simple maths.

RFN imo value should be at ~$3M-$4M with $600K cash + Loyyal value ($3.2M+++) + Wooboard ($100K?) = $6M minimum but more like $8-9M especially if acquired company wants to list and sees upside in ASX listing.... The bonus here is Loyyal could be worth more on paper and/or have a spike in RFN valuation but i am going for the conservative route. So if your average is RFN being a $20M market cap means Loyyal / Wooboard would have to be pumping!.... and then RFN wouldn't really look for acquisition as in its own right would be revenue generating etc?... This doesn't look to happen so you want as close to $3M shell value stripped back as possible imo....

So i am happy we have Loyyal investment and it doesn't look like a dud. But it is not able to act as a core business. FYI i look at tons of sales decks, balance sheets blah blah so have an idea....Especially those that have short sales cycles (lower touch points).

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Love the detail Bro, but you are forgetting some key Questions.
I MC correct, or should it $4 to $6 mil
Do we have enough cash for 2 more quarters?
Emirates plus some smaller players go live over next 2 months?
With this news plus hype that will go with that, will the share price still be bellow 3 cents ?
Therefore any CR would be done at much higher price if any !!!
Where the share price goes to in the mean time, is up to
Loy and Co.
I'm sure they have a plan. I just hope they let us in on it soon !!!

RFN Price at posting: 0.6¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Love the detail Bro, but you are forgetting some key...

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