Possible, but highly unlikely I think.BASF will be one of...

Possible, but highly unlikely I think.

BASF will be one of multiple customers. They may be the only hydroxide customer for P1, they may not. Point is, as a customer, their expense at this stage is limited to the qualification process and any prepayments for product they decide to make. $10m-$20m cost.

If they took over LPD, they first have to cough up for all of the shares, then go on to pay for funding the construction of the plant, while bearing all of the risk for the business. That's easily more than $150m for them.

Takeover also brings the risk of losing the technical staff that have the knowledge. Remember that SM does a lot of the work for LPD at the moment. They wouldn't get any of that knowledge in a takeover.

Now they could produce $150m without blinking if it is something they really wanted to do, but the question is whether they are willing to take that risk. If all they're interested in is the hydroxide, why spend the extra money?

Personally, I have always thought the highest risk of takeover comes after P1 is bedded down and before P2 is built. Large enough to have proved the business model works, but still relatively cheap from small scale.

@BeerAndSkittles, there is no scenario where BASF ends up with rights to the IP from an offtake agreement. 0% chance. If they want the rights, that's a separate deal.

Cheers