Hi Jasox
Thank you for your input on these LPD threads & I do agree with many of your posts, you're a valued asset to this forum!
The trouble with SP predictions into the distant future is they're a bit like predicting the long term weather forecast
too many variables!!
What's the temperature, wind direction & total precipitation going to be on Thursday 31st December 2020 at 4pm?
Whats the SP of LPD going to be on Thursday 31st December 2020 at 4pm?
The day to day or week to week predictions are a little bit easier IMO, but I do love a good SP prediction!!
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/lpd-share-price-by-31-january-2020.5161836/page-24?post_id=42292537
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/lpd-share-price-by-31-january-2020.5161836/page-63?post_id=42677724
First off, all of the below predictions go right out the window if
LPD management issue more shares or there's an SP consolidation anytime soon! Second, due to Covid & how the US government works I don't believe
both the BASF ann & a financing ann from DFC will be released before the end of the year.
I believe there could be up to 3 re-rates in LPD SP over the next 6 - 24 months. IMO, the re-rates could occur on the following news.
1. BASF signing up.
2. Financing approved.
3. Construction & production from a P1
1st re-rate - If the LOI with BASF is positive for LPD at the end of the year? A baseline floor price for the SP could be around
1 to 1.5 cents.
WHY??
1. LPD has neither the
money to build a P1 nor does she own one! (You have a customer! Great, but she can't be satisfied)
2. GXY tendency to sell off her stake in LPD. She still has 330 million shares to sell if she wants to, down from 416 million.
3.
LPD needs funding & Acuity has 230 million shares as collateral for a loan worth $7.5 million.
4. Combined that's
560 million shares that could be dumped onto the market slowly, keeping a cap on the price.
5. The shear number of SOI that's suppressing the SP.
6. LPD's tendency to continually issue shares (the SOI has almost tripled from when LPD took over the Platypus).
7. IMO, the
short sellers would know all of the above information & given the blatant ramping that has occurred over the last 4 years, the LPD forum was sure to draw attention to itself. She was on the short sellers radar last year.
2nd re-rate - If financing is approved? Around
2.5 cents.
WHY??
1. Because LPD might be going it alone without a JV.
2. Financing the build for a P1 is only part of the problem. It's all the expenses of the day to day running of the business that need to be funded as well, wages etc,
so more shares could be issued, more Acuity funding with shares a collateral.
3.
Massive cash burn!! Karibib has to be brought up to scratch & functioning.
Spending gets ramped up dramatically in all aspects of the business!! Everything has to fall into place, no hiccups, plus construction of a P1 & all associated materials, contracts, government red tape, hiring employees, training & costs
the list goes on & on!!
4. But no production, therefore no income, not a good combination with massive cash burn & debt. LPD will be vulnerable at this stage in all aspects from geopolitical, environmental, economically & political risk.
5. Massive debt.
6. Potential for more SOI.
7. The short sellers would know all this & could be active.
Now, the below SP is hypothetical because NO ONE has any clue as to how many variables could affect the SP. I was in this forum last year saying production was 3 or more years away. I still stand by that!! But we're 1 year down now so 2 or more years to go before production begins.
3rd re-rate - Construction of a P1 finalized & production within design specifications & output? -
4 - 5 cents
WHY??
1. Huge debt still to service.
2. Massive cash burn.
3.
I assume more SOI!! (Billions more I assume).
4. Revenue
LPD has a very, very long way to go.
Too many variables, if's, but's & maybe's that could affect the SP & too many to post about.
But, ALL IMO!!
Just curious to know if you have a SP prediction for December 2020
@Jasox??
(20min delay)
