Thoughts:
If trading is closed today and FID / LPD BOD's meeting concludes in the affirmative with the whole funding package in place to include the CR, two potential outcomes:- either the SP goes up / or the SP goes down — why?
Strategic Partner.
On the 1/9/2017 the closing SP of LPD was 1.1c, by the 9/10/2022 the SP had rose to 1.2c when a 17% discount to the days SP close of 1.2c occurred.
The figure being a 14% discount of the 30 day average was taken, calculating the CR price of 1c/share on the entitlements offering.
By the 16/9/2017 (the record date of the entitlements) SP closed at 2.5c.
26/9/2017 closing SP - 2.7c (rights stoped trading)
2/11/2017 closing SP - 3.3c (closing date)
9/11/2017 closing SP - 4.8c (new shares issued)
Will the next CR be the same?
It must be noted the market was white-hot concerning everything EV and renewables, so there is that to contend with.
But to be favourable to the crux , if we are partnered with funding and equity via Strategic Partner whom is the US government we will have the worlds current dominant hegemony in our corner.
Which brings very serious clout foreign (LPD has the US as a "partner") and domestic (LPD will have the ability to compete within the US boarders with the US Gov as equity holder for the company), so there is that.
Yes yes yes it's just conjecture that DFC could be buying a piece of LPD (Strategic Partner) but the thought must have crossed other minds, right?
Just saying it's not a long string to pull if we are going for funding with DFC, (and LPD is producing Lithium, Rubidium, Caesium, SOP (all on their Critical Minerals list)) it makes sense to me, we would also be open to have the DFC as an equity partner.
If that is the case IMHO, I would think the market will price the current shares at a premium, as LPD transforms forms from spec to chemical producer.
Counter.
SP goes down:- as we have seen in past CR's ( apart from GXY coming onboard as the Strategic Partner) the SP has faulted after the CR has been announced, which has always pissed me off no end, where I have seen the current SP dimmish back to the CR price.
The CR price being like a peg for the market to value the company, taken into account for the influx of new shares to inflate the SOI, which would account for the overall cost to NAV as being equal.
But this time is different, isn't it ?
This time, although being a climate of super high pricing for LCE, we also have the funding get us from a dream to reality, yes it could falter at the last hurdle and when the power gets turned on the project doesn't produce, but that will be a comfortable distance down the road for the future self to contend with.
Yet having all the funding components in hand after the FID being held today will see the road to production paved before us.
So best of luck peeps, which ever way it goes, we are all in the ship together.
LT-B1
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