Congratulations PJ your figures were margin of error from...

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olderwiser

2,181 Posts.

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31/01/17

20:21

Post #: 22266071
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Originally posted by peejayhercules ↑

Finally broke out above Resistance at 2.2. The breakout might get back tested, but the next level of resistance is 2.8. There's not many sellers in the queue up to 3 cents. Let's hope it stays that way.

View attachment 398837
The only way to reconcile to the actual receipts for September Quarter of $1.089m was to use the following assumptions: Annual Revenue $210,000 per GWh; 20GWh to be added each quarter; Timing of receipts once under management: 30% - 60 Days; 50% - 90 Days; 70% - 120 Days; 85% - 150 Days; 100% - 180 Days. Extending these assumptions into the December Quarter gives estimated receipts of $2.148m.

To my mind, these numbers are just too conservative. The GWh under management at the end of July was 39.3 GWh. You would think by Oct-Dec we would be receiving most of this as revenue, which would equal $2m receipts just it's own, let alone the GWh brought under management after July. I think there's scope for a jump of up to $0.5m on the spreadsheet numbers for any given quarter.

I have only allowed for 5.4GW to be added in December following management's announcement "November to January has the seasonal effect of lowering conversions due to higher occupancy rates over the holiday period, particularly to communities of the Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast. "
To my mind, higher occupancy rates means higher electricity usage which means higher receipts for the period December to March. I think the missing $0.5m might pop up in the March Quarter, but maybe $0.1m of it might squeeze into the December quarter.
View attachment 398846

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Congratulations PJ your figures were margin of error from perfect.
Using your models expectation of the March quarter receipts it pretty much matches LPEs forecast of expenditure. Cash flow positive is on track for end of March, how many sleeps is that.
That didn't show well can you put the spreadsheet up again please

Last edited by olderwiser: 31/01/17

LPE Price at posting: 2.1¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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