LPI vs AGY - for the egocentric, page-87

LPI requires US563 million for capex (at best). Good luck raising that with no evidence of capability. The positive for LPI is that it is trying to enter the industry at a time where all the heavy lifting has been done by others and the world has reached a point where the electric revolution is no longer in false start mode. As a result, the LPI share price is elevated and dilution should be minimised assuming LPI can demonstrate capability. That is what everyone is waiting for. As far as the AGY share price and SOI goes, simple maths gives us an indicative cps. At 2000 tpa using the current Li2CO3 price and a conservative P/E of 10, AGY is fairly valued at 29cps (based on EBITDA and current SOI). At P/E 15, the fair value is 44.6cps. At 12,000 tpa with an increase of 250M SOI to a total of 1.5B SOI, the conservative (P/E10) fair value is $1.48ps which would cap AGY at A$2.2B. Compare this to ORE/GXY (or ORGY) with a current cap of around A$6B who only produce circa 13,000 tpa with 66% of that BG (June 21 quarterly) and who only own 66.5% of the project. This makes the value estimate for AGY extremely fair.

Personally, I think the Li2CO3 price has a way to go (based on Nov17 peak of ~US$26,000/t) but I would expect it to stabilise somewhere between where it is now and where it was then. There will be some discount in sales contracts but given the supply demand disparity, I would expect no more than 10% depending on leverage. In any event US$18,000/t is probably a fair price to use.

All of this bodes well for LPI assuming the fundamental flaw is avoided.....having the capability.