The Chinese government has been actively promoting the use of...

The Chinese government has been actively promoting the use of Electric Vehicles (EVs) through a variety of financial incentives, including waived registration fees, tax breaks, and rebates on vehicle fees. These incentives have been effective in boosting the popularity of EVs in China. Indeed, these subsidies have catalyzed the growth of China's EV market. In 2022, EVs made up 22% of new car sales, up significantly from 15% in 2021. With China's recent pledge to invest USD 72.3 billion in EV incentives over the next four years, 2023 has already witnessed EV sales surpassing 35% of new car sales, a trend expected to continue throughout the year.

At the same time, demand for EVs is escalating in other global markets. For example, the European Union (EU) introduced a regulation in 2022 that requires all new cars sold in the EU to be zero-emission vehicles by 2035, which is further stimulating demand for EVs. This surge in demand for EVs is putting considerable pressure on the global market for critical battery metals, such as lithium. Lithium prices have experienced a substantial rise in recent years, a trend expected to persist.

It is highly plausible that the rest of the world will follow China's lead, implementing carbon emission taxes and high registration fees for petrol-powered cars, including hybrids, by 2026-27. These measures will incentivize a higher uptake of EVs while discouraging the use of combustion fuels. By 2028, it's likely that only the wealthy will be able to afford the costs associated with driving, registering, and owning Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles, rendering this shift inevitable.

By that stage, technological advances in EVs should enable them to be charged in under 5 minutes on rapid chargers, with a minimum range of 1000 kilometers being a common expectation for new EVs. The demand for lithium will continue to grow, leading to massive profits for lithium miners, reminiscent of the oil barons of the 1920s. It seems we are on the brink of a new era for EVs!