I believe we need to be selective who we listen to when it comes...

I believe we need to be selective who we listen to when it comes to forecasting prices. People who have made either a living from it for a long career, or who have a track record of making millions from commodities over an extended period.

People factoring in new supply seem to forget the high failure rate. Most lithium companies have trouble getting reports out when they promised them, let alone developing a mine and getting it to market.

This headline is a good example:



Six years late!

And whether you like his style or not, Rick Rule foretold that lithium share prices were "overbought" and people were chasing prices. He predicted that share prices would fall and that 'lots of money would be lost' in the short term.

BUT ... and it was a big "but" ... he stressed that lithium demand would continue to grow, prices would go back up and good money could be made by selecting quality stocks.

He makes the point that when something has doubled or tripled in price, it is less attractive. And vice versa.

The sky isn't falling. Spot prices affect sentiment and they will rebound. Contract prices remain pretty solid. LRS has a large deposit that should be relatively easy to mine, leading to a good PEA in the next week.

The electrification sector is a sea of red again today. While it hurts, it also presents buying opportunities. Some of the producers are on sale!

If people don't get themselves set tomorrow (Friday), for the countdown next week, I will be amazed.

And just to reinforce how hard the lithium game is, here are a few more screenshots that give an insight into why worries of long term over-supply seem to be made by people wearing rose coloured glasses.















As a footote, I listened to ultra-conservative investor, Jeremy Grantham, being interviewed last night. He believes that markets are right at the start of the green/environment investment theme and that it will run for 100 years.