Agree with this. I don’t see much of a good reason for management to aim for an SC6.0 given the risk you run in terms of recovery / flow sheet.
Better to just pump out volume and a grade you know you can produce safely at.
Sigma seems to have been the only company to navigate the highly risky transition to production without messing it up. Their SP has fallen recently but not due to production issues (it’s a legal issue).
Whereas CXO and SYA have both been massacred during the transition from developer to producer.
I think the market sees value in Colina for a few key reasons:
- Fast speed to production
- Simple flow sheet
- Low capex and opex
Therefore we need to protect these 3 attributes fiercely. If we fail on any one of these three, we are going to put market cap at risk.
So the name of the game from here is:
- Achieve all deadlines and show we are on track for 2026 - CG has done an excellent job with achieving deadlines so far. I don’t think a single public deadline has been missed. But this has to continue for the market to believe in our production forecast.
- DMS only = cheap and simple flow sheet, hopefully DFS continues to show this. If we can sign an offtake before Christmas with funding for our Capex (~$250m), Then in my view we would become a fully funded developer that has derisked financing from the project - straight over a $1bn Val if this could somehow be achieved IMO.
- low capex and opex are a function of operating in Minas Gerais and running a DMS only operation. Further cost reductions could be seen in the DFS if we confirm shipping to the U.S. rather than China ($30/T saving).
LRS General Discussion, page-14665
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