LRS General Discussion, page-16538

amongst the doom and gloom....from stock head today

High Voltage: Get out the long lens – lithium demand will quadruple by 2030, says Benchmark

"It’s being pushed by Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, which is one of the leading groups of analysts assessing prices, supply chain data and forecasting for the global lithium market. Grain of salt if you like.

The London-based price-reporting agency noted, according to its Lithium ion Battery Database that lithium ion battery demand is forecast to grow almost four-fold between 2023 and 2030 to 3.9 terawatt-hours.

This growth in battery demand, says Benchmark, will result in a corresponding surge in demand for critical raw materials as a whole.

And, according to the agency’s newly released Lithium Forecast for 2024:

“In 2015, batteries accounted for just 34% of lithium demand. In 2024, batteries are expected to account for 88% of the 1.2 million tonne demand.”

The sustainability supply-demand spin

Benchmark also throws an interesting metric into on the supply-demand sandwich – sustainability.
“Although a near-term surplus of lithium is forecast until 2029, there is a growing desire from automakers and consumers for lithium sourced sustainably,” notes the firm, adding:

“Benchmark’s Lithium Sustainability Index shows there is currently insufficient supply of lithium from companies with good environmental, social and governance (ESG) practices to meet demand now and in the future.”

“The question of provenance becomes the most important question of them all,” Cameron Perks, principal analyst for lithium at Benchmark, said during a Benchmark webinar last week.

Hmm, is this a reach?

Perhaps not when you consider the fact sustainability and ESG is a big, growing factor that’s driving many a commercial-based decision these days.

“The sourcing strategies, particularly for OEMs, is that they’re looking for industry leading, good practice companies to fulfil their lithium requirements in order to fulfil, say, decarbonisation goals, not just for the company, but for the country they’re operating in,” Perks said.

That’s all well and good, but Benchmark reckons the supply of such lithium is limited, noting that by 2026, lithium from recycled sources or mined by companies with industry leading or good ESG practices is set to meet 45% of demand but drop to 35% by 2030.

Lithium, EVs, clean energy, sustainability… guess it all ties in, doesn’t it, giving some validity to this angle.