LRS General Discussion, page-16623

It’s possible. You can make the argument that if supply is not currently an issue then EV companies like BYD and VW could be better off holding back now and putting those billions of dollars to use to provide supply from 2026 onwards instead (when LRS will start production).

The unknown is the asking price which Sigma is looking for. Their ATH SP was around $40 which is $6bn+ cap (AUD). So I guess they are probably asking for a number around there (makes sense given the $3 offer on LTR translated to a rough $6bn cap.

Would you shell out $6bn now for 270,000tpa immediately (current Sigma output) and potential for 700,000tpa from ~2025?

Or would you shell out $2bn over the next 6 months to buy LRS to produce ~300,000tpa from 2026 and ~550,000tpa from 2027/2028?

* LRS’s future output is hard to determine given the PEA was based on 26MT but we know that the DFS will likely be able to reach a figure of 50-55MT based on in-fill drilling. Planalto drilling will also show whether we we could mirror Sigma exactly with 700,000tpa.


The answer probably comes down to multiple factors but fundamentally how much do EV and converters need supply in 2024/2025 versus outlook for 26/27.