Can you share a couple of the tickers?
Id throw up an ASX hard rock developer as an example but there’s nothing comparable because the fluctuations in SC6 prices over the last few years make it too hard to compare.
Another way of looking at it which is probably too simplistic but Sigma closed on Friday at around $2bn AUD mkt cap. We are trading at 24% of this (and have been holding this % level for quite a while).
If the market values Sigma at $2bn @ ~$1k/t SC6 in its first year of production - then so long as our DFS makes the case for similar outputs and costs, this should be the rough valuation for LRS in back half 2026 and 2027 (of course the risk is we don’t get permitted, we don’t get funded, SC6 prices crash lower and/or we stuff up construction and ramp up). So the question in my mind becomes, how much extra value will cash offtake prepayment, debt funding and permits, FID etc add to our current market.
I agree with you that the market can often not do what you expect it to do, but (for example) I’d be very surprised if a $100m cash prepayment (the amount targeted by our mgt) doesn’t add at least ~$150m market cap (adding $100m of cash to the bank should immediately add at least $100m market cap at a minimum in my view).
Having said all this, LRS is almost at make or break time. The DFS + Offtake + bulk MET tests are due to be announced in August. Once these are announced the market will have a very clear insight as to whether we will be starting construction in January 2025 and producing July 2026.
LRS General Discussion, page-18292
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Last
18.0¢ |
Change
0.005(2.86%) |
Mkt cap ! $503.8M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
17.0¢ | 18.0¢ | 16.5¢ | $6.158M | 35.55M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 330000 | 17.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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18.0¢ | 899998 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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2 | 330000 | 0.175 |
8 | 1417140 | 0.170 |
16 | 3603691 | 0.165 |
7 | 2289611 | 0.160 |
6 | 2341100 | 0.155 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.180 | 899998 | 2 |
0.185 | 1827814 | 9 |
0.190 | 1739357 | 9 |
0.195 | 3562463 | 12 |
0.200 | 2616320 | 15 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 05/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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