LRS (ASX) LRS General Discussion

Originally posted by dawgfather: ↑

I don't place any emphasis on that broker average stat. But in relation to why it increased overnight to 80 cents - there's no reason for this as none of the brokers have issued any revised price targets (that I am aware of). I think it may be some technical glitch (it refers to the average of 3 brokers - whereas I know there are 4 covering LRS, Bell Potter, Canaccord, Redcloud and Pac Partners).

From memory, we are the only ASX Lithium stock that hasn't been downgraded by any broker during these bear run (which I view as a positive) - however it's hardly helpful when you're watching the share price decline day on day and week on week. Some big volumes are starting to churn through at these price levels - I'm sure some technical traders can provide their opinion on whether this is good or bad.

The general negative narratives are likely to be these:

- Until high cost companies are unwilling to produce at losses (i.e. SYA and in the not too distance future LTR) - the instos covering the lithium market are not going to slap a buy or even a neutral outlook on the sector. At the moment there is still way too many delusional execs in the lithium sector unwilling to read the writing on the wall. At least CXO got in quickly.
- This is the worst lithium sentiment in a very long time - how likely is a development project like LRS to be funded? On top of this - the general view is that essentially no one wants to buy lithium stocks - so there is constant selling into a thin pool of buyers = share price slide.
- We are likely to have somewhere around $25m cash as at end of June - a CR will be needed for working capital at some stage over the next few months - what discount to the SP will instos want for this?
- Constant articles and sentiment that lithium market is still firmly over-supplied - result is that spot prices won't stop moving lower week on week. As I type this post, the main futures contract is moving below 93,000 which is a fairly important level. Also from memory, the current carb spot price (90,500) is suggestive of an equivalent SC6 spot price somewhere around $875/t. SMM reported SC6 today at $1,027/t) and Platts reported last Friday at $975/t - so there is still a potential 10% loss for SC6 still coming (or more)?

The potential positive narratives that could develop for LRS are:

- LRS achieves a significant prepayment over the next month which gives the market confidence that we will meet our timeline to commence construction in January 2025.
- DFS shows cost remaining as low as the PEA (or slightly lower if we have an American offtake partner) - this would mean that we would demonstrate potential ability to generate free cash flow even at $900/t SC6.
- Market cap is currently back down near $400m. If we get funded then this looks very modest or even under-valued. However if we don't get funded, it could be frothy.

Expand

As I posted yesterday, any CR will be After FID in Q4 or Q1 next year. Expect DFS this quarter and offtakes agreements (likely up to 3) for 40+ of phase 1 production over first 5 years with potential prepayments. Offtakes after DFS this quarter or Q4.

No.	Vol.	Price($)
9	348486	15.5¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

348486

15.5¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
16.0¢	739708	11

Price($)

Vol.

No.

16.0¢

739708

No.	Vol.	Price($)
8	344681	0.155
68	4520738	0.150
19	1206521	0.145
23	2124147	0.140
7	649407	0.135

No.

Vol.

Price($)

344681

0.155

4520738

0.150

1206521

0.145

2124147

0.140

649407

0.135

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.160	739708	11
0.165	1174380	14
0.170	1678925	18
0.175	989323	10
0.180	1484204	17

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.160

739708

0.165

1174380

0.170

1678925

0.175

989323

0.180

1484204

(20min delay)
Last 15.5¢		Change -0.015(8.82%)		Mkt cap ! $433.9M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
16.5¢	16.5¢	15.0¢	$3.347M	20.57M

LRS General Discussion, page-18346

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LRS General Discussion, page-18346

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