Great technical analysis. The first thing I'd counter with is that broker data will never measure the fundamentals of any project and it's catalysts to realising full value.
The PFS is the most astute guide we have to date but you will get a better picture of the outlook of Hillgrove when you connect the dots RE assays from drilling at Bakers Creek, 5 planned drill rigs on-site for 2025 to acheive 50,000m of in-fill and extensional drilling, DFS studies and various other financing agreements to acheive production Q4 25 or Q1 26.
WITH NO FURTHER DILUTION.
On some very conservative production estimates the FCF of Hillgrove through CY26-CY30 will surpass $130m AUD pa and in my opinion has the ability to extend LOM from 7 years to 15-20 years.
Factoring this into your equation you'll eventually come to the conclusion that LRV is undervalued by multiples. Blue Ocean Equities has some great notes tracking Antimony macro pricing environment and production outlook on the PFS.
On a lighter note, had a good chuckle at Shaw Partners. Not very good at their job. Never have been.
LRV Price at posting:
67.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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