Some analysis. Please share your thoughts.
Let's start with a high-level view of share movements between brokers. Period: August 2024 till now.
Top Buyers:
Top Sellers:
Now looking at accumulation/distribution trends over time overlaid with price action. This gives better perspective on when buying occurred and whether it was gradual or concentrated in few large parcels.
For CommSec:
I also like to analyze the combined behavior of the 4 biggest retail brokers. Here's their collective accumulation pattern. Pretty much similar to CommSec since they dominate this group.
What's interesting here is the pivot in retail accumulation at the top. That overhigh on January 10 was driven by professional investors buying from retail - a pretty strong signal for breaking the level.
Another interesting chart -
Argonaut Securities accumulation. I really like following this broker to identify interesting opportunities in resources. It was a really good signal here - but I prioritized other opportunities at the time.
Sell Side
The biggest seller, Virtu ITG, completed their selling in September so it's less relevant now:
Looking at the last month to see current activity at these levels
Top Buyers and their accumulation dynamics - UBS and Canaccord dominate:
Top Sellers:
Conclusion: DYOR
Just sharing my analysis to hear your thoughts. I'm inclined to say the company looks overvalued at this level, but the recent overhigh driven by professional investors is a positive sign. Personally considering buying if it breaks up soon.
(20min delay)